Phillies vs. Rockies Series Thread

Game 1: Hamels LHP (5-3, 2.98 ERA)  vs. Bettis RHP (1-0, 4.19 ERA) 

Game 2: Harang RHP (4-4, 1.93 ERA) vs. De La Rosa LHP (1-2, 6.51 ERA)

Game 3: Williams RHP (3-4, 5.33 ERA) vs. Lyles RHP (2-5, 5.10 ERA)

Stats update 5/29:

Cody Asche played 15 games at Lehigh Valley. He batted .295 (18-61) with 3 doubles, a HR, 3 RBI and 6 walks. He committed 1 error in LF.

During the month of May, Ryan Howard is batting .307, w/ a .340 OBP, and .602 SLG. Howard has not finished a calendar month with a SLG% higher than .600 since June of 2010 (.650 SLG)

Cole Hamels has won his last 4 starts. It is his longest win streak since he won 5 straight n May 2012. During the streak, Hamels has a 1.53 ERA with a .192 average against and 0.85 WHIP, lowering his season ERA from 4.14 to 2.98.

Hamels has lowered his career ERA to 3.26, which is the lowest it’s been since June 6, 2006 (2.65) after his 3rd career start. His 3.26 career ERA is 3rd lowest among all active qualified starters, behind only Wainwright (2.98) and King Felix (3.04)

Phillies starting pitchers have 3.16 ERA at home, and 5.60 ERA on the road.

Comments

[Conway Twitty]

As I predicted, Asche in LF means noodle arm in RF. What a plan!

[Ben Revere Appreciation Society]

Hey! Benny's noodles have been slightly stiffer this year. Dont be a hater.

[MG]

At the game tonight (free tickets) and this has to be the lowest attendance of the year. We are 3rd base line in the 400 level and moving down shortly. Nobody around us.

[GTown_Dave]

I'd attend more often, but what's the point? After all I don't even understand the game.

[bay_area_phan]

Those who stayed home may miss the first perfect game ever thrown by a pitcher with a career ERA over 6.

[GTown_Dave]

I'm not worried. Ruben has a plan!

[Bonehead]

Has something changed on Stubhub?

Even with the thousands and thousands of unoccupied seats, there doesn't ever seem to be any mega-bargains for Phillies tix.

In recent past seasons, even with fewer unoccupied seats, one could play it right and get real bargains.

[GTown_Dave]

Asche. All part of The Plan ...

[GTown_Dave]

That's just Angel Hernandez being Angel Hernandez ... which is to say, being an arrogant jackass.

[GTown_Dave]

Saw that coming a mile away. Hernandez is a shit umpire, & he was bound & determined to toss someone.

[Sil]

Angel Hernandez. When it's a close call to C.B. Bucknor regarding who's worse, you know you're no good. Plus Scott Barry - he of the imminently punchable face.

[GTown_Dave]

Meals, Bucknor, Hernandez, West. All should have been fired years ago.

[Conway Twitty]

SSS ALERT: Franco, who at one time led the team in OPS, has dropped below .600. Hernandez is now 2nd with a mighty .708

[curt]

Yes, they've resumed their relentless march to the #1 overall draft pick.

[MG]

The Plan:

"Philadelphia has scored one or fewer runs a major league-leading 14 times this season."

[MG]

"Biddle's final line 5.2 IP 4 H 3 ER 3 BB 2 K 90 pitches 54 strikes"

Another start, another start where he can't throw strikes. I guess he deserves the rest of the year to show something but this is his 3rd year in Reading where he can't throw strikes with any kind of consistency.

[GTown_Dave]

No being able to throw strikes is the cornerstone of Phillies pitching development (see: Diekman, DeFratus, Garcia ...)

It will be a miracle if the Phillies don't lose 100+ games both this season & next.

[MG]

GTown Dave - This year it looks to be the case with the Phils trading a few players at the deadline (Harang is the only definite though) and losing 100+ games.

Quite possible though next year too although it is a bit early. The Phils can still say they are 'rebuilding' yet, reduce payroll down another peg or two to say $115-$120M, and pad their margins with the Comcast TV revenues finally starting to accrue on their ledger.

[Tal Venada]

Curt,

That was my pre-season pick: 30th place. I wrote about it in February.

[Tal Venada]

Guys,

Is Hamels worth more than another team's third-best maybe?

[GTown_Dave]

Hamels is not worth more than a 3rd best prospect, at least not from a team with a farm system worth a damn. The simple fact is clubs no longer need to make mid-season panic moves, nor do they appear to be inclined to do so. There are a myriad of ways to sneak into the Postseason, which makes mortgaging the future a bad bet. Intelligent GMs realize this. But the Phillies don't have an intelligent GM. They have Ruben Amaro, Jr.

[MG]

GTown Dave - Disagree but the issue is just how much another team will be willing to give up.

Amaro is going to be disappointed if he still thinks he is going to get a package of 3 Top 10 prospects/young established MLB talent.

[bay_area_phan]

I think it really depends who the team's top 2 prospects are. If they're Corey Seager & Julio Urias, or Mookie Betts & Blake Swihart, or Kris Bryant & Addison Russell, then I think the market has already told us that Hamels is not worth it. On the other hand, I think Hamels would easily be worth many team's top prospects.

My concern is that, due to his past dithering, RAJ is now under intense pressure from the fans & media to make a splashy trade. And when RAJ trades because he feels he has to, it turns out like the Lee or Pence-II trades. You can already see the momentum building toward a similar disaster. Spurned in their efforts to get Betts or Swihart, RAJ now seems to be obsessed with Margot -- yet another singles hitter who is currently OPSing .689 at high-A. Why is RAJ so fixated on the RedSox -- a team whose every worthwhile prospect (Betts, Swihart, Rodriguez, Castillo, Moncada) is off limits for one reason or another? There are 28 other teams with whom to trade. A normal GM would have long ago told Ben Cherington to go fuck himself if he wants Cole Hamels but refuses to give up any of his marquee prospects to get him.

[Willard Preacher]

BAP, you just don't understand the plan. SMH...

[GTown_Dave]

My feeling is teams are less willing to give up top prospects than they might have been in the past, & those teams that are still willing probably don't have very good #1-#2 players. Whatever the Phillies get for Hamels is going to be a disappointment, as the nature of "worth" in MLB has changed.

[Tal Venada]

BAP,

Margot is no longer available according to the Sox. Amaro showed interest and the Sox said no.

The Yankees have the best package in SP Severino, RF Judge, and C Sanchez, which I covered recently on the other BP.

[bay_area_phan]

I haven't heard that Margot is unavailable and I really can't believe that the RedSox would say no to trading a Single A outfielder with a sub-.700 OPS for one of the best pitchers in baseball. I also can't believe the Yankees would give up the package you just described. I think the Phillies would do well to get one of Judge or Severino. If they got one of those guys plus Sanchez, I'd give RAJ an A for the deal. They're never getting both Severino AND Judge, let alone both guys plus Sanchez.

[Willard Preacher]

If what Tal comments on is true, I start getting hot and heavy in discussions with NYY, leak that info to the media, then take one last look at whether or not BOS has so many "untouchable" prospects. Margot doesn't, and shouldn't, fit that bill, either.

Homer biases aside, Hamels is a stud pitcher who will be dependably solid for the duration of his contract. That alone is worth solid prospects, but if the rumors that the Phils are going to open the market up even further by kicking in some cash, it's a no brainer.

I want some top tier prospects as much as anyone and even if RAJ (or whomever is calling the shots over there at Broad and Pattison) plays this right, the Phillies are still likely to come up on the short end of the stick. Net, what the Phillies need cannot really be obtained by even dealing away one of the best pitchers in baseball, unless good luck and fortune happens to accompany an even calculated risk.

[Tal Venada]

BAP,

I follow certain sources for the latest info, and the Sox shot down Margot immediately. They like his 9.3 Spd. Revere is at 7.6 Spd. and Herrera is at 5.9 Spd.

Other than Quinn who is at 9.1 Spd., who do they have to leadoff if he doesn't make it? Besides, Quinn told me he doesn't like leg day before it happens, but it's no big deal the next day. I'm going to get in touch with him again. Maybe, he feels differently now at Reading.

[bay_area_phan]

You lost me. What is leg day?

[Tal Venada]

Williard,

It's the best package of five teams: NYY, BOS, CHC, LAD, & STL.

The Phils don't have a future catcher (Sanchez), a future right fielder (Judge), and enough future starting pitching (Severino). They have the best possible package for the Phils' tomorrow.

Can they get them? Probably not all three but Sanchez and one of the other two MIGHT be possible if the Yanks smell the playoffs.

[Iceman]

The Cubs got Addison Russell, the #3 prospect in all of baseball. for 1.5 years of Jeff Samardzija & Jason Hammel (it ended up being only half a season). Samardzija had a career 4.19 ERA until last year (3.94 FIP) and still fetched that kind of player.

The idea that Hamels and his sub-3 ERA the last 4+ seasons 'isn't worth' a team's #3 prospect is as dumb a statement as G-Town has ever made here...and that is long, long list of statements that span two websites.

[Tal Venada]

BAP,

Leg day is leg exercise day. Ergo, brutal. Quinn's legs are his biggest asset. He has the dream but leg day is part of paying for that dream. It's an obstacle, like editing is for a writer. I understand the paying part because I had a rock band years ago.

[Iceman]

Of course, the problem isn't that Hamels can't fetch a top prospect- it's that the GM is asking for multiple prospects, and other GMs aren't taking him seriously.

If we were in 2013 (or even 2014), I might still advocate the approach Amaro is taking and refuse to negotiate down. Hamels is far and away the best pitcher on the market; it isn't even close. But since that approach has been an utter failure (both Lee & Utley could've yielded good-to-great returns two seasons ago, when some here were hoping they'd be moved, and now both are garbage), it's almost imperative for Amaro to get what he can for Hamels right now at the risk of leaving this franchise even more completely barren than it already is.

[bay_area_phan]

"is as dumb a statement as G-Town has ever made here...and that is long, long list of statements that span two websites."

Now that's more like the Beerleaguer we all know and love!

[MG]

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/When_will_the_Phillies_next_play_a_meaningful_game_in_September.html

Concensus seems to be 2018 and I'd buy that if only to play 'meaningful games' in Sept now with the 2nd WC doesn't mean a whole lot anymore.

Phils met that criteria in '12 and a team can finish .500 or even 1-2 games below while playing 'meaningful games' now in Sept.

[Tal Venada]

Iceman,

Would you take what Cleveland, Phils, or Seattle got for Lee if Hamels got that?

[Tal Venada]

MG,

Weren't KC & SF both wild-card teams in the 2014 WS?

Didn't the BB owners institute the second WC to stop those on-a-roll teams from getting to the WS?

[curt]

MG - Considering that Cole Hamels was the last difference maker to come out of the
Phillie system, the Phils are going to have to start developing players at a slightly faster pace if they are to play a meaningful game in 2018.

[Tal Venada]

Guys,

Gillick is a HOF GM and Amaro is incompetent, right?

So, why doesn't Gillick fire Amaro?

[Phanatic]

Tal: I'm pretty sure Amaro is just a FO spokesperson/stooge at this point.

[Iceman]

Tal- the best deal of the bunch of those 3 was Seattle's, who acquired Smoak for a half season of Lee. Smoak was anywhere between #17-22 on prospect lists ahead of that season (the fact that he turned out to be a bust isn't really relevant to this discussion, but it's worth pointing out).

Some players in that range this year include Swihart, Owens, Bundy & Severino. If Boston ended up offering Swihart & change, I would pull the trigger. The other guys, I would probably want another prospect of some note.

[MG]

curt - It is amazing just how horrendous the Phils' drafts were from 2004-13. Even the '13 draft which includes Crawford looks like it includes a ton of bad picks.

System was so terrible and thin this time last year they had to almost entirely draft college players to fill its ranks. Even this year since Opening Day, they have had to pick up several players to fill the upper levels at Reading and Lehigh Valley.

Yeah it is better than it was say mid '13 when it was arguably one of the worst in MLB but it still has a long way to go.

Murphy said 2020 and it might not be to far off. Phils haven't yet bottomed yet and even their 1st round pick this year won't be until '17 at the earliest. Very well might take a repeat of the mid-late 90s with several years of very high picks & then a few years more until they develop and appear at the MLB level.

[bay_area_phan]

It's hard to call a draft a failure when you get one plus starter out of it -- and Crawford looks like a strong bet to be a plus starter. But, yeah, the rest of that 2013 draft was truly horrendous. Knapp (round 2) looks like he might fit the bill as a backup catcher, but the picks after that were just terrible. I don't even see any future backups in there.

[curt]

MG - quite right. Anyone mumbling about competitiveness in 2017, 2018, or anytime this decade is letting their fandom get in the way of the harsh realities. The current regime has tanked this franchise big time...and they're still n charge.

[curt]

Bap - i'm as hopeful about Crawford as the next guy, but he's just arrived in AA. The failure rate between there and big league regular is high. I'd be thrilled if just one of the guys now at Reading is a starter 4 years from now.

[bay_area_phan]

Oh, believe me, I'm well aware that Crawford is a long way from being proven. Xaender Bogaerts was every bit as impressive as Crawford in the minors (actually, even more so) and he has struggled at the big league level so far. But at least there's good reason for optimism on Crawford. There aren't many Phillies prospects about whom that can be said.

[GTown_Dave]

The headline on Phillies.com reads "O'Sullivan Looks To Go Distance Against Reds"

Who knew the ol' ball club had such a sense of humor?

[Meyer]

TGP makes me weary. Glad there's a place to relax. BAP, I hope to watch Joely Rodriguez tonight if the rain stops. Wind will be blowing in. What I like about Crawford and Rodriquez is that they are very athletic. Both can grow physically into stronger performers and Joely may be able to slow himself down at some point and have move consistent control. I'm more optimistic about his potential as a starter. As I posted before, I watched him pitch to his AFL scouting report from last fall.

[Willard Preacher]

"The current regime has tanked this franchise big time...and they're still n charge."

That last part alone is cause enough to abandon any talk about about when the Phillies "will play another meaningful game." Plan, or no plan (the latter is where my "ignorant phan" money lies...), until there's change in the approach, there's no reason whatsoever to even play prognosticator.

[Iceman]

The better question is probably when they will be worth watching again, considering that you can only project a handful of players for the roster 2 years from now. We have no idea how good most of them will be.

They'll probably be worth watching again in 2017, but that's only because most of the old blood will be gone.